Oil stocks to buy ahead of next OPEC meeting

Oscar PerryOct 12, 2017

Rising supply from the US and from other producers outside of the deal, as well as recovery of production in exempt OPEC members Libya and Nigeria, have been offsetting much of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts.

He also said Nigeria and Libya, who were exempted from the pact, "are making progress towards full recovery" of production, after which they could join the OPEC-led agreement.

Libya's goal of boosting oil production to 1.25 million bpd by year-end will be hard to achieve, the chairman of state oil firm NOC said.

Top producer Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 9.973 million bpd in September, up about 22,000 bpd from August and still below its OPEC target of 10.058 million bpd. "Between the first half and second half this year, demand growth is nearly about 2 million barrels (per day), which is very robust", he said.

Should OPEC keep pumping at September's level, the market could move into a deficit next year, the report indicates. OPEC does not issue price forecasts.

OPEC is courting U.S. shale oil producers and other crude-producing nations to join the oil cartel to restore equilibrium price in the market, which would be advantageous for India as the country is one of the leading consuming countries.

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"Although the motive behind the Saudi King visiting Moscow would not have been purely to discuss oil, the combination of the visit with the announcement of further production cuts does help improve sentiment ahead of the upcoming OPEC meeting on 30 November", Ahmad added.

However it doesn't see prices climbing soon.

In the meantime, Investment Bank Barclays raised its Brent crude price outlook for the first quarter of 2018 to 56 dollars a barrel.

OPEC lowered its estimate of supply growth from non-OPEC countries next year, seeing a rise of 940,000 bpd, down 60,000 bpd from the previous forecast, due to downward revisions to Russian Federation.

"A rise above that level would encourage U.S. oil producers to expand their drilling activities, otherwise the lower prices could lead to a reduction" in investments, it added.

Although an Iraqi military spokesman denied any attack, John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, said "worries over Kurdistan are helping.get us back over 51".

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